Analyse von Thailands ehemaligen "National Security Adviser"
Four takeaways from Thammasat rally on Saturday:
1. The Junta was taken by surprise at the number of the protesters showing at democracy's restoration. Around 500-600 showed up at the campus but ballon up along the way to Army HQ after many joined during the march. Our security source on location indicated between 1500-2000. Only two companies of police were there to defend the Army HQ, their effort to set up metal fences or security perimeter failed, the marchers overran each barrier. Surprisingly, there was no anti riot squad from the Army activated to defend their own turf.
2. Junta's chief of staff expected the classic tactic of arrest the protest leaders, then free them the next, would be sufficient for this protest. But such past tactics was inadequate last Saturday against much bigger number of protesters. Expect different response from the Junta for May 5th rally.
3. Earlier in the week during their Isaan tour, a comment was made by Gen Prayuth which Thai Post put up on their front page that under this reign, political protesting are frown upon by someone. The general know well there was a protest taking place on Saturday plus several hundred employee TOT protest combine with the sounthern rubber groups. Naturally Gen Prayuth hope this comment will pre-empt many of hoping to join the protest but it backfire apparently.
4. There are the dilemma of future harsher measures which no one doubt the Junta will win. But they also know that the ultimate prize is to win the next government and using force will serve no such purpose. The other political fall out will be if there are big number of fatalities, different politcal fallout will occur. Then the stage is set for the next major political change.
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Thema: Studentenproteste (Gelesen 199970 mal)